Drier weather expected into summer

By TOM LAVENTURE

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MARQUETTE — This week of spring rain, light snow and seasonable temperatures is really an exception to an ongoing unseasonably warm and dry trend that will continue to impact the area, according to the National Weather Service in Marquette.

The seasonal precipitation level since July 1, 2020 is slightly above normal at 25.7 inches, while the average is 25.01 inches, according to Ryan Connelly, meteorologist in Marquette. The observed measurements are recorded at the wastewater treatment facility in Ironwood.

“There were some fairly wet days back in July with a half-inch and three-quarter to one-inch that put things above normal and it stayed pretty much that way since,” Connelly said.

The 2020-21 winter snowfall to this point is a much different picture with 78.6 inches observed, as compared to the normal average of 170.3 inches, he said. The year-to-date totals since Jan. 1, are even more telling with 3.73 inches of total precipitation compared to a normal of 4.69 inches, and 35.3 inches of observed snowfall as compared to the average normal of 92.7 inches.

Record warm weather and lack of snow since last fall has created the potential for higher brush fire risks, according to Natt Zika, a meteorologist in Marquette. On the positive side it has helped reduce record high water levels in Lake Superior and Lake Michigan, he said.

“We’re coming out of one of the top 10 warm winters and one of least snowiest winters since the 1950s,” Zika said. “It has been a span of upwards of 60 to 70 years since the last time we’ve had such a winter with so little snowfall, especially over there in your area (Western U.P.).”

The latter part of fall was dry and the low amount of snow over winter is almost gone, he said. This week and next appear to be wet with seasonable temperatures but there is high confidence that above normal temperature and dry weather patterns will continue into April, he said.

“The entire U.P. except the Keweenaw Peninsula will have a fire issue for the next several weeks,” Zika said.

The light snow did not compress the grass and it becomes fuel that is more susceptible to burning in a dryer and warmer spring, he said. There are no long range trends to suggest that a wet pattern will be emerging over the next several weeks.

“Really, the biggest concern we are dealing with until the green up is the risk of fire on the critical warm and breezy days,” Zika said.

Homeowners who burn brush won’t likely get burn permits during the critical day and they should exercise extra caution over the next several weeks, he said.

There was a La Niña pattern in effect last fall but that has little correlation to Great Lakes weather patterns, he said. The lake area atmosphere was locked into a persistent pattern of four or five months and it looks to continue for another six weeks or so, he said.

The lack of rain and snow has meant a reduction in tributary runoff into Lake Superior and Lake Michigan, he said. Lake levels are about 8 inches lower right now than in March 2020, and are expected to be from 6-to-8-inches lower than the previous year through summer.

The latter half of summer tends to the peak lake height time and it’s expected to fall from 5-to-10 inches, he said. However, last year’s levels were record highs and the lower levels this year are still above normal.

“If there are big storms in the fall there is still going to be a concern with the threat of erosion but not to the level we’ve seen in the last two to three years,” Zika said. “The trend is similar for Lake Michigan where they were setting records last year and this year it should be down six to eight inches if that trend continues into the summer months.”