Demographer: Michigan's steady population requires migrants

By PAMELA JANSSON

pjansson@yourdailyglobe.com

Ironwood - It's no secret that the population of Gogebic County has dwindled steadily since the first half of the 20th century, when more than twice as many folks lived here.

But now, the state's key demographer predicts that the entire state will not be able to offset the many deaths of aging baby boomers unless we experience "continuous and higher levels of net positive migration."

Dr. Jaclyn Butler spoke on Sept. 26 at the Ironwood Area Chamber of Commerce fall social at the Aurora Club.

She began her presentation, which was backed by a slideshow, by reporting that the baby boom era during the middle of the 20th century brought a rapid increase in the population of the county and the state.

At the same time, however, U.P. mines were closing in tandem, resulting in gradual declines.

Modern life also has resulted with women having smaller and smaller families.

Butler defined related terminology in relation to its effects on population change: "natural change" and "net migration."

Organic factors such as births and deaths create natural change: As Butler explained, greater numbers of births equal "natural increase," whereas, higher numbers of deaths result in "natural decrease."

"Michigan has consistently lost more population than it gained," she said regarding the period from the 1970s until now.

In fact, she said that, from 2000 onward, the number of deaths rose more dramatically due to baby boomers aging out, and then there also were record high increases in death during the COVID-19 pandemic, which began in 2020.

But Butler emphasized, "Michigan was trending toward natural decrease even before COVID."

Moreover, she warned, "We're projecting that births will continue to decline through 2050."

During the same period, baby boomers will continue aging out, resulting in large numbers of death.

Butler said that one factor has helped to offset population loss in roughly the past decade and a half: international immigration.

According to her, "net migration" is defined by comparing incoming and outgoing population numbers. When incoming persons outnumber outgoing persons, it results in net immigration. When the reverse occurs, it results in net emigration.

Butler said that, even in a net positive state of migration, the state still could decline in population as of 2034. "We have entered a period statewide and nationally of population decline," she said.

"We've had consistent out-migration," she added, pointing out that many persons leaving the state are young people whose potential children then also are lost.

Regarding this county in particular, Butler said, "From 1940 on, Gogebic County has experienced population decline every decade since."

Moreover, she said, every year since 1970 has seen more deaths and more net out-migration.

The trends have taken a toll on the demographics of the county, which, among the state's counties, had the 16th highest median age - just over 50 years old - in 2020. And it is expected to rise.

USAfacts.org states that Gogebic County's population was 16,397 in 2010, but it has dropped 12.7% to its current total of 14,224.

Butler said the county did experience net positive migration during the COVID-19 pandemic, which began in 2020 and resulted with a net gain of 126 migrants from other states during the first few years of this decade.

That now has leveled off or declined, she said, and the newcomers that did arrive during the pandemic did not compensate for the number of ongoing deaths during the same period.

Throughout the state as a whole, from 2022 to 2023, 88% of Michigan's counties experienced natural decrease, and - on a national scale, during the decade from 2013 to 2023 - there was a 71% increase in the number of counties experiencing natural decrease.

Butler concluded that, with the state and the country facing "challenging" obstacles to growth, a continuous, net-positive migration could help to offset - if not outnumber - any losses.

"Michigan is increasingly dependent on net-positive migration," she said.

One problem with attracting new residents is housing, said Butler, who noted that this county has a high percentage of housing reserved for seasonal or vacation use.

However, she regards the following factors as assets in attracting new residents: "an abundance" of natural amenities, along with increasing opportunities for remote employment, and also housing - at least when it is available - at the lowest median value of $87,800 among all Michigan counties.

Michael Meyer, the chamber's executive director, acted as emcee for the fall social and introduced Butler.

As a Detroit native, she completed her Ph.D. in demography and rural sociology at Pennsylvania State University, often referred to simply as Penn State. She also earned earlier degrees from the Harvard Graduation School of Education and Georgetown University.

Butler described herself as Michigan's liaison to the U.S. Census, and she works in the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics, based in Lansing.